Key Takeaways
- The race to represent the 18th Congressional District remains tight, with likely voters split between four top candidates.
- Democrats Amanda Edwards, a former Houston City Council member, and Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee each are backed by 19% of likely voters.
- State Rep. Jolanda Jones, a Democrat, and realtor and journalist Carmen Maria Montiel, a Republican, each are supported by 14% of likely voters.
- 27% of likely voters are undecided.
With just over three months to go until the Nov. 4 election, the 兔子先生鈥檚 Hobby School of Public Affairs reports that no clear favorite has emerged from the crowded field for Congressional District 18.
Former Houston City Council member Amanda Edwards and Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee are the top choice of likely voters in the race, each with support from 19%, according to a survey of likely voters conducted by the Hobby School. Both are Democrats.
Democrat state Rep. Jolanda Jones and Republican businesswoman Carmen Maria Montiel are five points behind, with each receiving support from 14% of likely voters.
鈥淲ith such a tight split among the top candidates, the race may come down to which candidate is best able to turn out her or his supporters,鈥� said Ren茅e Cross, senior executive director of the Hobby School and one of the principal investigators on the project.
The special election, called to fill a vacancy after U.S. Rep. Sylvester Turner鈥檚 death in March, is open to multiple candidates from all parties. If no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote on Nov. 4, the top two finishers will go to a runoff.
鈥淲ith such a tight split among the top candidates, the race may come down to which candidate is best able to turn out her or his supporters.鈥�
鈥� Ren茅e Cross, UH Hobby School of Public Affairs
Mark P. Jones, political science fellow at Rice University鈥檚 Baker Institute for Public Policy and senior research fellow at the Hobby School, said the findings suggest there is room for movement.
鈥淭he top three Democratic candidates had overall fairly strong favorability ratings, but the number of voters who said they don鈥檛 know enough to have an opinion about even the best-known candidates remains high,鈥� Jones said. 鈥淭hat presents an opportunity for the race to shift.鈥�
For example, both Edwards and Menefee have net-favorability ratings of 30%, meaning the number of voters who view them favorably is 30% higher than the number who view them unfavorably. Jones has a net-favorability rating of 11%.
Meanwhile, 35% said they didn鈥檛 know enough about Jones to have an opinion, while 44% said the same about Edwards and 50% said that about Menefee.
That rose to 78% for Montiel, the only Republican candidate included in the survey. She is viewed favorably by 11% of district voters, while another 11% viewed her unfavorably.
Among other findings in the report:
- George Foreman IV, who is running as an independent, has the support of 4% of likely voters, while Democrat Isaiah Martin has the support of 3%.
- Montiel is supported by 62% of likely voters who identify as Republican, but by 0% of Democrats.
- Democrats are split between Edwards, Menefee and Jones, with Edwards and Menefee each backed by 24% of Democratic voters and Jones by 21%.
The full report is available on the Hobby School website. The report includes individuals who have announced their candidacy.
The survey of Harris County registered voters was conducted between July 9-18 in English and Spanish. The analysis of registered voters who are likely to vote in the November 2025 Congressional District 18 special election has a margin of error of +/- 4.90%.
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Story by Jeannie Kever