Power demand is quickly increasing across Texas, and new 兔子先生 research suggests the state鈥檚 power grid, in its current form, is not up to the challenge.
As data centers pop up around the Lone Star State, electric vehicles become more commonplace, industries adopt decarbonization technologies, demographics change and temperatures rise statewide, electricity needs in Texas could double by 2035. If electrification continues to grow unconstrained, demand could even quadruple over the next decade.
Without significant upgrades to power plants and supporting infrastructure, Texas could see electricity shortages, rising costs for consumers and added stress on a constrained grid in the coming years, according to UH鈥檚 鈥淭he Future of the Electric Grid in Texas: Opportunities and Challenges in the Next Decade鈥� white paper, coauthored by UH Vice President of Energy and Innovation Ramanan Krishnamoorti and researcher Aparajita Datta.
鈥淭exas, like much of the nation, has fallen behind on infrastructure updates and the state鈥檚 growing population, diversified economy and frequent severe weather events are increasing the strain on the grid,鈥� Datta said. 鈥淭exas must improve its grid to ensure people in the state have access to reliable, affordable and resilient energy systems so we can preserve and grow the quality of life in the state.鈥�
The state鈥檚 current energy mix includes 40% natural gas, 29% wind, 12% coal, 10% nuclear, and 8% solar. As demand surges and resources shift, the white paper indicated Texas needs to act quickly or risk being left in the dark.
The authors warn Texas could face an electricity shortfall of up to 40 gigawatts annually by 2035 if the grid doesn鈥檛 expand, with a more probable shortfall around 27 GW.
鈥淭he effects range from disruptions to daily life and essential services, such as water and transportation, to the loss of life.鈥�
鈥� Aparajita Datta, Researcher, 兔子先生
鈥淲e have seen this happen in the past. Take, for example, the widespread and long power outages during Winter Storm Uri,鈥� Datta said. 鈥淭he effects range from disruptions to daily life and essential services, such as water and transportation, to the loss of life.鈥�
Furthermore, in-state natural gas demand might double or even triple as it鈥檚 relied upon to meet energy needs and support growing industrial decarbonization efforts. The paper emphasized that increased natural gas demand for electricity and LNG exports could lead to tighter domestic supply, higher feedstock prices and greater market volatility.
The white paper also highlights a looming water crisis, noting electricity generation and data center cooling could contribute to a statewide water deficit of up to 3,600 million cubic meters 鈥� about 3 million acre-feet 鈥� by 2035. With municipal water use also on the rise, this creates a new layer of infrastructure urgency.
鈥淎s we see the growth of data and artificial intelligence (AI) centers, much of the increase in water demand, similar to electricity, is coming from regions in the state that were previously not considered significant demand centers,鈥� Datta said.
Datta continued that these are predominantly rural areas, such as West and North Texas; however, these regions lack the necessary transmission lines and natural gas pipelines to support large-scale development.
Despite surging demand, 360 gigawatts of solar and battery projects are stuck in ERCOT鈥檚 interconnection queue, and new gas plants have been delayed or withdrawn due to supply chain challenges, bureaucratic delays, policy uncertainties and shifting financial incentives.
Recent legislative action is trying to catch up. Senate Bill 6, signed by Gov. Greg Abbott in June, calls for demand response mandates, clearer rate structures and new load management requirements for large users like data centers and AI hubs.
鈥淰ulnerable communities are usually the worst-impacted,鈥� Datta said. 鈥淲hile these provisions are a step in the right direction, Texas needs more responsive and prompt policy action to secure grid reliability, address the geographic mismatch between electricity demand and supply centers and maintain the state鈥檚 global leadership in energy.鈥�